Here are some things to think about prior to viewing tonight's debate between vice president, Kamala Harris, and former President Donald Trump.
- Most voters in previous elections that had their minds made up, and debates have had a marginal effect on voter decisions. This election is different. There is a large contingent of voters who will be paying attention to tonight's debate for the purpose of informing their ballot.
- Americans are extremely wary of what is clearly a faltering economy. We are being told that we are not in a recession and that everything is fine. When any American of any strata is asked about the health of the economy on a micro economic level everyone I talk to is deeply concerned. A cup of coffee is twice what it was in 2019. A new pick up truck can be $80,000. Nobody is suffering under the illusion that the economy is doing great. The ability of Trump and Harris to provide a compelling economic plan is central.
- Former President Donald Donald Trump always under-pols. This is very significant because he trailed Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden in his previous bids for the presidency by 5 to 7 points at this time. He is actually up one point in the national polls, and is predicted to have over a 60% chance to win the electoral college. Given that he under-poles by such a significant margin, it is very possible that we are looking at a 7 to 10 point victory for Donald Trump. Harris needs to show up big(ly) tonight to counteract what is clearly the end of the honeymoon phase of her candidacy.
- From a tactic standpoint, and you all know that this is my favorite aspect of politics, the Harris campaign is going to try to anger and exacerbate Trump. Expect a performance from Harris that has canned statements and plenty of avoidance in her answers. Then she will pepper in a few digs at Trump. He likes a fight and is temperamentally inclined to punch back. His advisors are trying to find a way to help him appear more restrained with Harris because they are worried that he will appear to be beating up a woman; unlike Hillary Clinton, Kamala has visual appeal. She is attractive and ethnic whereas Hillary took on the persona of a man and evoked close to zero sympathy from viewers. While Harris is nowhere near as capable a politician as Hillary, she is off limits in terms of aggressive responses due to her appearance and demographics. Trump is going to do his (HIS) best at subduing his rants and aggression.
How exciting! Finally we have a debate that Americans want to watch! Look for my review that I'll release early tomorrow.
And hey...tell a friend or a few about Real Clear Podcast with Lucas Klein, Ph.D.